Производственная функция Канады

Автор работы: Пользователь скрыл имя, 06 Апреля 2011 в 13:47, курсовая работа

Описание работы

Канада входит в «семерку» наиболее крупных развитых стран. Ее ВВП в конце 90-х гг. приблизился к 900 млрд. долл., а ВВП на 1 занятого в экономике был около 60 тыс. долл., что свидетельствует о высоком уровне экономического развития страны. Традиционно на экономику Канады оказывали влияние два главных фактора — наличие богатых природных ресурсов и соседство с могущественными США.

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исх. данные (сырые)

	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	K	L
1		GFC - Gross Fixed Capital [Formation]
2
3		ВВП, Основные фонды и др. (млн. канад. $)
4
5		ВВП		ОФ		потребление ОФ	чистое сбережение	занятые
6		GDP (current prices)	GDP (1990 prices)	GFC (current prices)	GFC (1990 prices)	consumption of fixed capital	net saving	Total Employment (тыс. чел)	Норма накопления	Норма износа
7	60	39,193	192,741	8,844	32,692	4,769	2,588	5,880	10.1%	10.8%
8	61		205,957		35,505			6,113	10.3%	10.9%
9	62		219,173		38,318			6,346	10.0%	11.4%
10	63		232,389		41,131			6,579	10.7%	11.3%
11	64		245,605		43,944			6,812	11.1%	11.6%
12	65		258,821		46,757			7,060	10.9%	12.0%
13	66	63,977	272,038	15,922	49,568	7,369	7,875	7,348	11.3%	11.2%
14	67	68,612	279,984	16,248	49,407	7,881	7,466	7,557	11.2%	11.5%
15	68	74,839	294,988	16,492	49,651	8,412	7,938	7,693	11.4%	10.5%
16	69	82,424	310,794	18,144	52,335	9,135	9,323	7,929	11.8%	11.5%
17	70	88,462	319,065	19,011	52,394	9,948	8,776	8,011	12.2%	10.7%
18	71	96,550	337,438	21,570	56,636	10,764	9,718	8,192	12.1%	10.4%
19	72	107,785	356,621	23,878	59,084	11,734	12,069	8,428	12.3%	10.3%
20	73	126,420	348,110	28,858	64,944	13,628	17,027	8,843	12.7%	10.4%
21	74	150,956	400,899	35,780	69,258	16,447	22,264	9,206	11.5%	10.2%
22	75	170,106	411,316	41,845	73,281	18,760	19,132	9,363	11.4%	10.5%
23	76	196,292	436,590	46,707	76,668	11,454	23,224	9,551	11.7%	10.1%
24	77	216,088	452,192	50,226	78,264	23,798	21,297	9,725	12.3%	9.9%
25	78	239,580	472,878	54,579	80,693	26,619	23,863	10,062	12.8%	10.1%
26	79	274,092	491,325	63,435	87,584	30,743	32,671	10,469	13.4%	10.0%
27	80	307,730	498,605	72,288	96,418	35,527	35,030	10,781	13.2%	9.9%
28	81	353,454	517,004	86,119	99,345	40,677	39,057	11,080	14.0%	9.8%
29	82	371,820	500,374	81,327	95,935	44,356	38,039	10,719	13.7%	9.9%
30	83	402,229	516,373	81,227	95,245	47,060	38,637	10,810	13.6%	9.8%
31	84	441,311	549,284	84,699	97,278	50,884	38,258	11,075	13.6%	9.7%
32	85	474,339	575,286	94,198	106,480	55,926	37,058	11,388	13.9%	9.9%
33	86	501,426	594,068	101,560	113,090	60,595	30,167	11,711	14.1%	10.1%
34	87	546,778	618,664	116,717	125,319	64,116	39,831	11,940	13.5%	9.6%
35	88	600,840	649,735	132,790	138,195	68,128	55,807	12,323	13.8%	9.4%
36	89	645,147	664,750	146,075	146,574	72,352	53,095	12,564	14.7%	9.5%
37	90	662,809	662,809	141,376	141,376	78,594	30,021	12,650	15.2%	9.2%
38	91	669,113	650,752	132,001	137,227	82,331	13,234	12,418	14.5%	9.3%
39	92	683,086	656,040	128,856	135,204	85,305	7,721	12,316	14.6%	9.5%
40	93	705,987	670,913	128,884	135,956	87,904	8,700	12,384	15.1%	9.6%
41	94	748,758	701,695	139,192	145,798	92,973	25,586	12,696	15.2%	9.4%
42	95	807,088	769,082		150,301			13,008	15.1%	9.2%
43	96	833,921	782,130		155,428			13,319	15.2%	9.3%
44	97	873,947	813,031		158,082			13,631	14.8%	9.2%
45	98	895,704	838,265		163,761			13,943	15.1%	9.2%

исх. данные (2)

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I
1
2		ИСХОДНЫЕ ДАННЫЕ ПО ЭКОНОМИКЕ КАНАДЫ
3
4		(млн. канад. $)
5		ВВП	ОФ	занятые
6	Год	ВВП в ценах 1990 г.	ОФ в ценах 1990 г.	занятые (тыс. чел)	Норма накопления	Норма износа	Темп прироста занятых	Фондовооруженность	Производительность
7	60	192,741	32,692	5,880	10.1%	10.8%	3.9%	5.560	32.779
8	61	205,957	35,505	6,113	10.3%	10.9%	4.0%	5.808	33.692
9	62	219,173	38,318	6,346	10.0%	11.4%	3.8%	6.038	34.537
10	63	232,389	41,131	6,579	10.7%	11.3%	3.7%	6.252	35.323
11	64	245,605	43,944	6,812	11.1%	11.6%	3.5%	6.451	36.055
12	65	258,821	46,757	7,060	10.9%	12.0%	3.6%	6.623	36.660
13	66	272,038	49,568	7,348	11.3%	11.2%	4.1%	6.746	37.022
14	67	279,984	49,407	7,557	11.2%	11.5%	2.8%	6.538	37.050
15	68	294,988	49,651	7,693	11.4%	10.5%	1.8%	6.454	38.345
16	69	310,794	52,335	7,929	11.8%	11.5%	3.1%	6.600	39.197
17	70	319,065	52,394	8,011	12.2%	10.7%	1.0%	6.540	39.828
18	71	337,438	56,636	8,192	12.1%	10.4%	2.3%	6.914	41.191
19	72	356,621	59,084	8,428	12.3%	10.3%	2.9%	7.010	42.314
20	73	348,110	64,944	8,843	12.7%	10.4%	4.9%	7.344	39.366
21	74	400,899	69,258	9,206	11.5%	10.2%	4.1%	7.523	43.548
22	75	411,316	73,281	9,363	11.4%	10.5%	1.7%	7.827	43.930
23	76	436,590	76,668	9,551	11.7%	10.1%	2.0%	8.027	45.711
24	77	452,192	78,264	9,725	12.3%	9.9%	1.8%	8.048	46.498
25	78	472,878	80,693	10,062	12.8%	10.1%	3.5%	8.020	46.996
26	79	491,325	87,584	10,469	13.4%	10.0%	4.0%	8.366	46.931
27	80	498,605	96,418	10,781	13.2%	9.9%	3.0%	8.943	46.248
28	81	517,004	99,345	11,080	14.0%	9.8%	2.8%	8.966	46.661
29	82	500,374	95,935	10,719	13.7%	9.9%	-3.3%	8.950	46.681
30	83	516,373	95,245	10,810	13.6%	9.8%	0.8%	8.811	47.768
31	84	549,284	97,278	11,075	13.6%	9.7%	2.5%	8.784	49.597
32	85	575,286	106,480	11,388	13.9%	9.9%	2.8%	9.350	50.517
33	86	594,068	113,090	11,711	14.1%	10.1%	2.8%	9.657	50.727
34	87	618,664	125,319	11,940	13.5%	9.6%	2.0%	10.496	51.814
35	88	649,735	138,195	12,323	13.8%	9.4%	3.2%	11.214	52.725
36	89	664,750	146,574	12,564	14.7%	9.5%	2.0%	11.666	52.909
37	90	662,809	141,376	12,650	15.2%	9.2%	0.7%	11.176	52.396
38	91	650,752	137,227	12,418	14.5%	9.3%	-1.8%	11.051	52.404
39	92	656,040	135,204	12,316	14.6%	9.5%	-0.8%	10.978	53.267
40	93	670,913	135,956	12,384	15.1%	9.6%	0.6%	10.978	54.176
41	94	701,695	145,798	12,696	15.2%	9.4%	2.5%	11.484	55.269
42	95	769,082	150,301	13,008	15.1%	9.2%	2.5%	11.555	59.124
43	96	782,130	155,428	13,319	15.2%	9.3%	2.4%	11.670	58.723
44	97	813,031	158,082	13,631	14.8%	9.2%	2.3%	11.597	59.646
45	98	838,265	163,761	13,943	15.1%	9.2%	2.3%	11.745	60.121
46
47
48
49				161,725.5	167,376.9	174,332.8	176,552.1
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65

произв. ф-ции

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	R	S	T	U	V	W
1
2										Производственные функции
3									Период	альфа L	альфа K	ln A	А	Тип роста
4									60-98 гг.	1.394	0.149	-1.490	0.225	фондосберегающий (экстенсивный) рост
5									60-84 гг.	1.410	0.112	-1.230	0.292	фондосберегающий (экстенсивный) рост
6									85-98 гг.	1.756	0.151	-4.930	0.007	фондосберегающий (экстенсивный) рост
7										0.151
8
9													aL/aK =	9.350	12.592	11.632	МПФ за 1960-98 гг.
10		Исходные данные				Логарифмы				Расчетный ВВП (X)				Нормы замены труда фондами (млн$/тыс.чел)			Изокванты
11	Год	ВВП, Х, млн $	ОФ, K, млн $	занятые, L, тыс. чел.		ln Х	ln K	ln L		60-98 гг.	60-84 гг.	85-98 гг.		60-98 гг.	60-84 гг.	85-98 гг.	X0 =	4,800	5,050
12	1960	192,741	32,692	5,880		12.169	10.395	8.679		190,727	193,920	144,884		51.984	70.011	64.670	L	K	K
13	1961	205,957	35,505	6,113		12.235	10.477	8.718		203,837	206,747	157,064		54.305	73.137	67.558	480	9,160	12,876
14	1962	219,173	38,318	6,346		12.298	10.554	8.756		217,203	219,816	169,672		56.456	76.033	70.234	500	6,253	8,791
15	1963	232,389	41,131	6,579		12.356	10.625	8.792		230,824	233,126	182,710		58.454	78.724	72.720	520	4,334	6,092
16	1964	245,605	43,944	6,812		12.411	10.691	8.826		244,699	246,675	196,177		60.316	81.232	75.035	540	3,045	4,281
17	1965	258,821	46,757	7,060		12.464	10.753	8.862		259,596	261,244	210,860		61.922	83.395	77.034	560	2,167	3,047
18	1966	272,038	49,568	7,348		12.514	10.811	8.902		276,875	278,212	228,204		63.072	84.944	78.465
19	1967	279,984	49,407	7,557		12.542	10.808	8.930		287,774	289,331	239,609		61.128	82.326	76.047
20	1968	294,988	49,651	7,693		12.595	10.813	8.948		295,235	296,865	247,418		60.344	81.270	75.071
21	1969	310,794	52,335	7,929		12.647	10.865	8.978		310,362	311,621	262,986		61.713	83.114	76.774	Изоклинали
22	1970	319,065	52,394	8,011		12.673	10.867	8.989		314,898	316,216	267,828		61.150	82.356	76.074	K0 =	-	5,000	3500	200	50
23	1971	337,438	56,636	8,192		12.729	10.944	9.011		328,652	329,197	281,841		64.641	87.057	80.416	L0 =	-	50	5000	10000	15000
24	1972	356,621	59,084	8,428		12.784	10.987	9.039		344,088	344,278	298,156		65.546	88.277	81.543	a =	-	24,999,733	9,576,157	- 10,655,373	- 24,062,089
25	1973	348,110	64,944	8,843		12.760	11.081	9.087		373,157	372,349	329,087		68.666	92.478	85.424
26	1974	400,899	69,258	9,206		12.901	11.146	9.128		398,483	396,934	356,628		70.340	94.733	87.507	L	K	K	K	K	K
27	1975	411,316	73,281	9,363		12.927	11.202	9.145		411,436	409,093	370,525		73.178	98.555	91.037	5,000	1,635	5,261	3,500
28	1976	436,590	76,668	9,551		12.987	11.247	9.164		425,856	422,860	386,318		75.053	101.080	93.370	10,000	3,270	5,975	4,502	200
29	1977	452,192	78,264	9,725		13.022	11.268	9.182		438,053	434,767	400,007		75.245	101.338	93.608	15,000	4,906	7,005	5,800	3,662	50
30	1978	472,878	80,693	10,062		13.067	11.298	9.217		461,454	457,729	426,636		74.982	100.984	93.281	20,000	6,541	8,233	7,236	5,668	4,327
31	1979	491,325	87,584	10,469		13.105	11.380	9.256		493,673	488,519	463,104		78.221	105.346	97.311	25,000	8,176	9,584	8,742	7,496	6,541
32	1980	498,605	96,418	10,781		13.120	11.476	9.286		521,722	514,686	494,745		83.619	112.616	104.026	30,000	9,811	11,012	10,288	9,252	8,497
33	1981	517,004	99,345	11,080		13.156	11.506	9.313		544,423	536,726	521,447		83.832	112.903	104.291
34	1982	500,374	95,935	10,719		13.123	11.471	9.280		517,157	510,230	489,387		83.681	112.700	104.103	МПФ за 1960 - 84 гг.
35	1983	516,373	95,245	10,810		13.155	11.464	9.288		522,724	515,932	496,167		82.380	110.947	102.485	Изокванты
36	1984	549,284	97,278	11,075		13.216	11.485	9.312		542,377	535,123	519,382		82.125	110.604	102.167	X0 =	4,800	5,000
37	1985	575,286	106,480	11,388		13.263	11.576	9.340		571,512	562,238	552,934		87.423	117.739	108.758	L	K	K
38	1986	594,068	113,090	11,711		13.295	11.636	9.368		599,593	588,817	586,081		90.289	121.599	112.324	480	7,477	10,765
39	1987	618,664	125,319	11,940		13.335	11.739	9.388		625,501	612,119	615,833		98.133	132.164	122.083	500	4,472	6,439
40	1988	649,735	138,195	12,323		13.384	11.836	9.419		663,246	647,041	660,635		104.853	141.213	130.442	520	2,729	3,929
41	1989	664,750	146,574	12,564		13.407	11.895	9.439		687,402	669,357	689,598		109.077	146.903	135.697	540	1,697	2,443
42	1990	662,809	141,376	12,650		13.404	11.859	9.445		690,244	673,100	694,115		104.493	140.730	129.995	560	1,073	1,545
43	1991	650,752	137,227	12,418		13.386	11.829	9.427		669,682	653,572	668,896		103.322	139.152	128.537
44	1992	656,040	135,204	12,316		13.394	11.815	9.419		660,562	644,940	657,799		102.642	138.236	127.691
45	1993	670,913	135,956	12,384		13.416	11.820	9.424		666,202	650,372	664,748		102.646	138.241	127.697	Изоклинали
46	1994	701,695	145,798	12,696		13.461	11.890	9.449		696,938	678,893	701,811		107.371	144.606	133.575	K0 =	-	5,000	3500	200	50
47	1995	769,082	150,301	13,008		13.553	11.920	9.473		724,204	704,937	735,756		108.033	145.496	134.398	L0 =	-	50	5000	10000	15000
48	1996	782,130	155,428	13,319		13.570	11.954	9.497		752,205	731,566	770,826		109.109	146.946	135.737	a =	-	24,999,733	9,576,157	- 10,655,373	- 24,062,089
49	1997	813,031	158,082	13,631		13.609	11.971	9.520		778,843	757,285	804,876		108.432	146.034	134.895
50	1998	838,265	163,761	13,943		13.639	12.006	9.543		808,045	784,942	841,990		109.814	147.895	136.614	L	K	K	K	K	K
51																	5,000	1,409	5,195	3,400
52									R2	0.9925	0.9913	0.9535					10,000	2,818	5,739	4,185	-
53																	15,000	4,227	6,547	5,239	2,686	-
54		Масштаб и эффективность производства															20,000	5,636	7,534	6,430	4,595	2,776
55	Период	X`	K`	L`	альфа	1 - альфа	EK	EL	E	M							25,000	7,045	8,639	7,695	6,243	5,057
56	60-98 гг.	4.349	5.009	2.371	0.097	0.903	0.868	1.834	1.706	2.549							30,000	8,454	9,822	9,003	7,799	6,886
57	60-84 гг.	2.850	2.976	1.884	0.074	0.926	0.958	1.513	1.463	1.948
58	85-98 гг.	1.457	1.538	1.224	0.079	0.921	0.947	1.190	1.1688	1.2467
59
60																	МПФ за 1985 - 98 гг.
61																	Изокванты
62																	X0 =	1,450	1,580
63																	L	K	K
64																	480	8,488	14,988
65																	500	5,279	9,322
66																	520	3,346	5,908
67																	540	2,157	3,809
68																	560	1,413	2,495
69
70
71																	Изоклинали
72																	K0 =	-	5,000	3500	200	50
73																	L0 =	-	50	5000	10000	15000
74																	a =	-	24,999,733	9,576,157	- 10,655,373	- 24,062,089
75
76																	L	K	K	K	K	K
77																	5,000	1,491	5,217	3,435
78																	10,000	2,981	5,821	4,297	-
79																	15,000	4,472	6,708	5,438	3,057	-
80																	20,000	5,963	7,782	6,718	4,990	3,390
81																	25,000	7,454	8,975	8,070	6,701	5,612
82																	30,000	8,944	10,247	9,464	8,327	7,479
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
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97
98
99

Модель Солоу

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	I	J	K	L	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Y	Z	AA	AB	AC
1
2																	Функции Кобба-Дугласа			Экзогенные параметры модели Солоу
3																	альфа	ln A	А	ро	мю	ню	лямбда	k0 = K(0)/L(0)	k^	1-альфа	L(0)
4													Параметры ур-я k(t)			По всему периоду	0.709	2.305	10.023	0.129	0.102	0.024	0.125	5.560	3076	0.291	5,880
5														15.484		60-84 гг.	0.820	2.090	8.087	0.120	0.106	0.027	0.133	5.560	61355	0.180	5,880
6														- 13.239		85-98 гг.	0.638	2.466	11.776	0.146	0.095	0.017	0.111	9.350	1943	0.362	11,388
7														- 0.040
8														2.764		Принимаемые в расчет	0.638	2.466	11.776	0.146	0.095	0.017	0.111	9.350	1943.374	0.362	11388.000
9
10		Исходные данные						Относит.			Логарифмы		Расчетный ВВП по функции Кобба-Дугласа				Расчетные (модельные) значения модели Солоу
11	Год	ВВП, Х, млн $	ОФ, K, млн $	занятые, L, тыс. чел.	Норма накопления, ро,%	Норма износа, мю, %	Темп прироста занятых, ню, %	k = K/L	x = X/L	ln k	ln x		60-98 гг.	60-84 гг.	85-98 гг.		Год	t	k(t)	x(t)	i(t)	c(t)	L(t)	X(t)	I(t)	C(t)	K(t)
12	1960	192,741	32,692	5,880	10.1%	10.8%	3.9%	5.560	32.779	1.716	3.490		198,933	194,137	206,952		1960	0	9.350	49.0	7.2	41.9	11,388	558,486	81,699	476,788	106,480
13	1961	205,957	35,505	6,113	10.3%	10.9%	4.0%	5.808	33.692	1.759	3.517		213,323	209,190	221,235		1961	1	16.668	70.9	10.4	60.5	11,580	821,253	120,138	701,116	193,006
14	1962	219,173	38,318	6,346	10.0%	11.4%	3.8%	6.038	34.537	1.798	3.542		227,637	224,192	235,431		1962	2	26.415	95.1	13.9	81.2	11,774	1,120,326	163,888	956,439	311,025
15	1963	232,389	41,131	6,579	10.7%	11.3%	3.7%	6.252	35.323	1.833	3.565		241,889	239,148	249,554		1963	3	38.628	121.3	17.7	103.5	11,973	1,451,855	212,386	1,239,469	462,480
16	1964	245,605	43,944	6,812	11.1%	11.6%	3.5%	6.451	36.055	1.864	3.585		256,085	254,066	263,614		1964	4	53.281	148.9	21.8	127.1	12,174	1,812,611	265,159	1,547,452	648,651
17	1965	258,821	46,757	7,060	10.9%	12.0%	3.6%	6.623	36.660	1.891	3.602		270,403	269,054	277,833		1965	5	70.304	177.7	26.0	151.7	12,379	2,199,832	321,804	1,878,028	870,283
18	1966	272,038	49,568	7,348	11.3%	11.2%	4.1%	6.746	37.022	1.909	3.612		285,129	284,286	292,582		1966	6	89.591	207.4	30.3	177.1	12,587	2,611,118	381,969	2,229,149	1,127,696
19	1967	279,984	49,407	7,557	11.2%	11.5%	2.8%	6.538	37.050	1.878	3.612		286,802	284,963	294,954		1967	7	111.014	237.9	34.8	203.1	12,799	3,044,369	445,348	2,599,021	1,420,869
20	1968	294,988	49,651	7,693	11.4%	10.5%	1.8%	6.454	38.345	1.865	3.647		289,303	287,037	297,798		1968	8	134.429	268.8	39.3	229.4	13,014	3,497,727	511,667	2,986,060	1,749,506
21	1969	310,794	52,335	7,929	11.8%	11.5%	3.1%	6.600	39.197	1.887	3.669		302,959	301,334	311,359		1969	9	159.679	300.0	43.9	256.1	13,233	3,969,545	580,688	3,388,857	2,113,095
22	1970	319,065	52,394	8,011	12.2%	10.7%	1.0%	6.540	39.828	1.878	3.685		304,110	302,172	312,745		1970	10	186.604	331.3	48.5	282.9	13,456	4,458,355	652,194	3,806,162	2,510,952
23	1971	337,438	56,636	8,192	12.1%	10.4%	2.3%	6.914	41.191	1.933	3.718		323,466	323,390	331,344		1971	11	215.039	362.7	53.1	309.7	13,682	4,962,846	725,993	4,236,852	2,942,263
24	1972	356,621	59,084	8,428	12.3%	10.3%	2.9%	7.010	42.314	1.947	3.745		336,084	336,524	343,930		1972	12	244.820	394.0	57.6	336.4	13,913	5,481,842	801,915	4,679,927	3,406,113
25	1973	348,110	64,944	8,843	12.7%	10.4%	4.9%	7.344	39.366	1.994	3.673		364,454	366,818	371,734		1973	13	275.787	425.1	62.2	362.9	14,147	6,014,291	879,805	5,134,487	3,901,513
26	1974	400,899	69,258	9,206	11.5%	10.2%	4.1%	7.523	43.548	2.018	3.774		385,950	389,492	392,987		1974	14	307.784	456.0	66.7	389.3	14,385	6,559,250	959,525	5,599,725	4,427,427
27	1975	411,316	73,281	9,363	11.4%	10.5%	1.7%	7.827	43.930	2.058	3.783		403,697	409,193	409,906		1975	15	340.659	486.5	71.2	415.3	14,627	7,115,870	1,040,950	6,074,920	4,982,786
28	1976	436,590	76,668	9,551	11.7%	10.1%	2.0%	8.027	45.711	2.083	3.822		419,258	426,161	424,944		1976	16	374.268	516.6	75.6	441.0	14,873	7,683,394	1,123,971	6,559,423	5,566,506
29	1977	452,192	78,264	9,725	12.3%	9.9%	1.8%	8.048	46.498	2.085	3.839		427,668	434,832	433,390		1977	17	408.475	546.3	79.9	466.3	15,123	8,261,141	1,208,487	7,052,654	6,177,501
30	1978	472,878	80,693	10,062	12.8%	10.1%	3.5%	8.020	46.996	2.082	3.850		441,391	448,611	447,407		1978	18	443.152	575.4	84.2	491.2	15,378	8,848,503	1,294,410	7,554,093	6,814,693
31	1979	491,325	87,584	10,469	13.4%	10.0%	4.0%	8.366	46.931	2.124	3.849		473,227	483,228	478,240		1979	19	478.176	604.0	88.4	515.7	15,637	9,444,938	1,381,659	8,063,278	7,477,020
32	1980	498,605	96,418	10,781	13.2%	9.9%	3.0%	8.943	46.248	2.191	3.834		510,943	525,618	513,917		1980	20	513.435	632.1	92.5	539.6	15,900	10,049,962	1,470,166	8,579,797	8,163,446
33	1981	517,004	99,345	11,080	14.0%	9.8%	2.8%	8.966	46.661	2.193	3.843		526,064	541,326	529,030		1981	21	548.825	659.6	96.5	563.1	16,167	10,663,149	1,559,866	9,103,283	8,872,964
34	1982	500,374	95,935	10,719	13.7%	9.9%	-3.3%	8.950	46.681	2.192	3.843		508,273	522,914	511,205		1982	22	584.248	686.4	100.4	586.0	16,439	11,284,120	1,650,706	9,633,415	9,604,603
35	1983	516,373	95,245	10,810	13.6%	9.8%	0.8%	8.811	47.768	2.176	3.866		506,923	520,620	510,415		1983	23	619.616	712.6	104.3	608.4	16,716	11,912,543	1,742,635	10,169,908	10,357,429
36	1984	549,284	97,278	11,075	13.6%	9.7%	2.5%	8.784	49.597	2.173	3.904		518,210	532,029	521,894		1984	24	654.848	738.2	108.0	630.3	16,997	12,548,128	1,835,612	10,712,516	11,130,549
37	1985	575,286	106,480	11,388	13.9%	9.9%	2.8%	9.350	50.517	2.235	3.922		557,008	575,841	558,486		1985	25	689.869	763.2	111.6	651.6	17,283	13,190,625	1,929,600	11,261,025	11,923,113
38	1986	594,068	113,090	11,711	14.1%	10.1%	2.8%	9.657	50.727	2.268	3.926		586,061	608,047	586,272		1986	26	724.612	787.5	115.2	672.3	17,574	13,839,818	2,024,568	11,815,251	12,734,316
39	1987	618,664	125,319	11,940	13.5%	9.6%	2.0%	10.496	51.814	2.351	3.948		633,884	663,770	630,377		1987	27	759.016	811.2	118.7	692.5	17,870	14,495,527	2,120,488	12,375,038	13,563,398
40	1988	649,735	138,195	12,323	13.8%	9.4%	3.2%	11.214	52.725	2.417	3.965		685,674	723,296	678,686		1988	28	793.029	834.2	122.0	712.2	18,170	15,157,599	2,217,340	12,940,259	14,409,643
41	1989	664,750	146,574	12,564	14.7%	9.5%	2.0%	11.666	52.909	2.457	3.969		718,940	761,716	709,622		1989	29	826.600	856.6	125.3	731.3	18,476	15,825,913	2,315,105	13,510,808	15,272,381
42	1990	662,809	141,376	12,650	15.2%	9.2%	0.7%	11.176	52.396	2.414	3.959		702,158	740,402	695,171		1990	30	859.688	878.3	128.5	749.8	18,787	16,500,372	2,413,769	14,086,603	16,150,990
43	1991	650,752	137,227	12,418	14.5%	9.3%	-1.8%	11.051	52.404	2.402	3.959		683,791	720,133	677,528		1991	31	892.254	899.4	131.6	767.8	19,103	17,180,904	2,513,321	14,667,583	17,044,889
44	1992	656,040	135,204	12,316	14.6%	9.5%	-0.8%	10.978	53.267	2.396	3.975		675,006	710,361	669,137		1992	32	924.267	919.8	134.6	785.3	19,425	17,867,460	2,613,754	15,253,706	17,953,541
45	1993	670,913	135,956	12,384	15.1%	9.6%	0.6%	10.978	54.176	2.396	3.992		678,752	714,307	672,849		1993	33	955.699	939.7	137.5	802.2	19,751	18,560,013	2,715,065	15,844,948	18,876,456
46	1994	701,695	145,798	12,696	15.2%	9.4%	2.5%	11.484	55.269	2.441	4.012		718,420	759,836	709,901		1994	34	986.524	958.9	140.3	818.6	20,084	19,258,553	2,817,251	16,441,302	19,813,181
47	1995	769,082	150,301	13,008	15.1%	9.2%	2.5%	11.555	59.124	2.447	4.080		739,287	782,438	730,203		1995	35	1,016.724	977.5	143.0	834.5	20,422	19,963,090	2,920,315	17,042,775	20,763,306
48	1996	782,130	155,428	13,319	15.2%	9.3%	2.4%	11.670	58.723	2.457	4.073		762,303	807,686	752,407		1996	36	1,046.281	995.6	145.6	849.9	20,765	20,673,652	3,024,260	17,649,392	21,726,462
49	1997	813,031	158,082	13,631	14.8%	9.2%	2.3%	11.597	59.646	2.451	4.088		776,725	822,398	766,980		1997	37	1,075.183	1,013.0	148.2	864.9	21,115	21,390,280	3,129,092	18,261,188	22,702,317
50	1998	838,265	163,761	13,943	15.1%	9.2%	2.3%	11.745	60.121	2.463	4.096		801,669	850,003	790,901		1998	38	1,103.420	1,029.9	150.7	879.3	21,470	22,113,034	3,234,821	18,878,213	23,690,574
51
52												R2	0.9866	0.9831	0.8585
53
54					Норма накопления	Норма износа	Темп прироста занятых
55				Средние за весь период	12.9%	10.2%	2.4%
56				Средние за 60-84 гг	12.0%	10.6%	2.7%
57				Средние за 85-98 гг	14.6%	9.5%	1.7%
58
59

Прогноз

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H
1
2			Производственные функции
3		Период	альфа L	альфа K	А
4		60-98 гг.	1.394	0.149	0.225
5		60-84 гг.	1.410	0.112	0.292
6		85-98 гг.	1.756	0.151	0.007
7
8
9
10			Исходные данные
11		Год	ВВП, Х, млн $	ОФ, K, млн $	занятые, L, тыс. чел.	МПФ за 60-98	МПФ за 85-98	Линейная комбинация
12	1	1960	192,741	32,692	5,880	190,727	144,884	168,813
13	2	1961	205,957	35,505	6,113	203,837	157,064	181,511
14	3	1962	219,173	38,318	6,346	217,203	169,672	194,423
15	4	1963	232,389	41,131	6,579	230,824	182,710	207,550
16	5	1964	245,605	43,944	6,812	244,699	196,177	220,891
17	6	1965	258,821	46,757	7,060	259,596	210,860	234,841
18	7	1966	272,038	49,568	7,348	276,875	228,204	250,121
19	8	1967	279,984	49,407	7,557	287,774	239,609	259,796
20	9	1968	294,988	49,651	7,693	295,235	247,418	271,203
21	10	1969	310,794	52,335	7,929	310,362	262,986	286,890
22	11	1970	319,065	52,394	8,011	314,898	267,828	293,446
23	12	1971	337,438	56,636	8,192	328,652	281,841	309,639
24	13	1972	356,621	59,084	8,428	344,088	298,156	327,388
25	14	1973	348,110	64,944	8,843	373,157	329,087	338,598
26	15	1974	400,899	69,258	9,206	398,483	356,628	378,763
27	16	1975	411,316	73,281	9,363	411,436	370,525	390,920
28	17	1976	436,590	76,668	9,551	425,856	386,318	411,454
29	18	1977	452,192	78,264	9,725	438,053	400,007	426,099
30	19	1978	472,878	80,693	10,062	461,454	426,636	449,757
31	20	1979	491,325	87,584	10,469	493,673	463,104	477,215
32	21	1980	498,605	96,418	10,781	521,722	494,745	496,675
33	22	1981	517,004	99,345	11,080	544,423	521,447	519,225
34	23	1982	500,374	95,935	10,719	517,157	489,387	494,881
35	24	1983	516,373	95,245	10,810	522,724	496,167	506,270
36	25	1984	549,284	97,278	11,075	542,377	519,382	534,333
37	26	1985	575,286	106,480	11,388	571,512	552,934	564,110
38	27	1986	594,068	113,090	11,711	599,593	586,081	590,074
39	28	1987	618,664	125,319	11,940	625,501	615,833	617,249
40	29	1988	649,735	138,195	12,323	663,246	660,635	655,185
41	30	1989	664,750	146,574	12,564	687,402	689,598	677,174
42	31	1990	662,809	141,376	12,650	690,244	694,115	678,462
43	32	1991	650,752	137,227	12,418	669,682	668,896	659,824
44	33	1992	656,040	135,204	12,316	660,562	657,799	656,919
45	34	1993	670,913	135,956	12,384	666,202	664,748	667,830
46	35	1994	701,695	145,798	12,696	696,938	701,811	701,753
47	36	1995	769,082	150,301	13,008	724,204	735,756	752,419
48	37	1996	782,130	155,428	13,319	752,205	770,826	776,478
49	38	1997	813,031	158,082	13,631	778,843	804,876	808,954
50	39	1998	838,265	163,761	13,943	808,045	841,990	840,127
51	40	1999	808,154	163,014	14,202	828,463	869,032	835,216
52	41	2000	824,500	166,581	14,409	848,126	894,388	855,672
53	42	2001	840,846	170,148	14,617	867,946	920,086	876,293
54	43	2002	857,192	173,716	14,825	887,922	946,123	897,079
55	44	2003	873,538	177,283	15,032	908,051	972,500	918,030
56
57		факт				ВВП за 99 г. в ценах 92		873374
58		прогноз				ВВП за 99 г. в ценах 90		814,858
59							Расхождение	97.56%
60								2.44%

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