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In this research paper I have been analyzed Central Asia as being an attractive and significant place in entire world in terms of its geopolitical location and rich resources assets, where the main world actors in the face of the US, Russia,China have been pursuing their own national interets.
Running head: The Great game
in Central Asia
The Great game in Central Asia
Medeu Aigerim, ID 20084482
Kazakhstan Institute
of Management, Economics and Strategic Research
When all die,
only then will end
the Great Game. Not before”
Rudyard Kipling. »Kim" (1901)
Introduction
The transitory periods of the beginning of the 1990-s have transformed the character of international relations dramatically. The Soviet Union collapsed. Along with it the bipolar system of the world will be no more. For the first time after the Britain Empire had been dominating, the US became the only world hegemony with the other states taking second, third and other places. Such kind of the security challenges in the face of terrorism, separatism and extremism have been emerged.
All of these characteristics pull wires on the circumstances of the Central Asia. It has remained a unique terra-incognita for a long time. On the one hand, with the Soviet Union dissolution and getting independence, Central Asian region was associated as an unlighted desert area, which is a long-distance from the developed West. Probably such kind of understanding has been provoked by the Iron Curtain. In the other hand, potential interest to the Central Asian region was existed. Earlier in 1919 Winston Churchill argued that “Central Asia is a milk cow, which is waiting for its crocodile”.
In the mid of XX and XXI centuries Central Asia as in second part of XX century became an arena of the “Great game”- but if earlier it was between the Great Britain and Russian Empire, in present day the list of competitors have been grown markedly with including Russia, the US, China, European Union, Iran, Turkey, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Arab World as the main actors.
After the Soviet Union collapse and creation on its place 15 newly independent states all of the before-mentioned actors started propulsion of its national interests. Moreover, the most part of the world was not ready to cracked change in this region, first of all because of Central Asia being obscured and distant from the Western countries. In this regard, Russia, despite of its cracked position and its internal issues, viewed this region as the area of its national interests. The US had been limited by the aims of threat minimization after the dissolution of the “Evil Empire”. Chinese had been investigated in the rigorous manner simultaneously eventuated realities after the immediate collapse of the USSR. Turkey without any overture tried to promote a goal of knocking together Turkic bloc under the Turkey headship. Iran was a passive first of all because of total isolation, which was initiated by the US. Other figurants, namely, India, Pakistan and Arab World apart from declarative actions, took a waiting attitude.
And only soon after evolution
of the international relations in the center of the Central Asia and
clarification of the internal and external orientation each of the state;
their interests toward this region have been altered essentially. How
it was happened we should try to consider in instance. In this paper
we are going to consider the main actors in the Central Asian region,
namely the US, Russia, China and as well as EU.
Having lost its superpower
status, Russia nevertheless remains an important player in world
politics. With the changing contours of the regional dynamics of Moscow,
where he highlighted the growing influence of the United States and
China, as well as the creeping of the European Union in the Caucasus
and Central Asia, it is obvious that Russia can not remain a bystander
in a changing strategic and military balance of power in their backyards.
Following the recent announcement of the revitalization of NATO in the
Caucasus and Central Asia, Moscow's leaders such as Konstantin Kosachev,
the influential head of Duma Committee on Foreign Affairs, argue that
Russia should use its influence in the region to promote democracy,
demonstrating the local leaders that Kremlin does not want to rebuild
the economic and military dominance in the region to the Soviet style.
Kosachev said that Russia's influence on political processes in these
countries should be used to build truly democratic states.
It is important to note that Russia has traditionally considered the
region a strategic buffer against external threats, and many strategic
interests compel Russia to keep Central Asia as its sphere of influence.
The main aims and interests of Moscow:
1. to help transform the Central Asian republics (CARs) in a politically
and economically viable state, conducting a friendly Russia policy.
2. Strengthen the role of Russia in the system of intergovernmental
political and economic relations.
3. Expand and formalize the integration of CIS countries.
4. Ensure the economic interests of Russia in the region.
5. Save Russia's control over regional energy resources, in addition
to ways of transporting Caspian oil to be beneficial for Russia.
6. Confront the threats of religious extremism, helping to prevent drug
trafficking and weapons smuggling.
7. Ensure environmental security in Central Asia, in particular paying
attention to the environmental disaster of the Aral and Caspian Seas.
8. Protect the rights of Russian living in the region.
Protecting economic interests of Russia is a one of the major goals
of the Moscow policy in the CARs. To protect its interests, Russia retains
tight control over countries that are considered most important, for
example, in Kazakhstan. For Russia, Kazakhstan is politically and economically
important state. Here are the Soviet military and industrial facilities,
including the Baikonur and testing ground for nuclear weapons.
Kazakhstan - the second after Russia's largest oil producer in the former
Soviet Union. Control over its energy resources and means of transportation
gives Russia the most important strategic and economic leverage. Russia
also has huge companies that depend on imports of cotton from Uzbekistan.
In general, the economic sector, there is a huge number of links between
Russia and the CARs.
Russia has vital interests in oil and gas sector in Central Asia. The
region has huge reserves, and Moscow has here its economic benefits.
At the same time, he plays a strategic role in ensuring Russia's control
over the production and transportation of oil and gas in the near abroad.
Moreover, Russia seeks to avoid economic isolation by building new pipelines
on its territory. Activities of Russian oil companies intensified in
Kazakhstan, which already started the struggle for control over oil
exports. To a lesser extent this is true also in respect of Turkmenistan
and Uzbekistan.
Russian political analysts tend to consider the status of their country
in Central Asia, unchanged, which prefers a gradual transformation,
making the choice between rapid transitions to democracy and maintaining
stability. They prefer a gradual process of transformation attempts
to impose Western democratic models, are alien to these states.
Alarmed by growing U.S. and Chinese influence in the region, Russia,
given its strategic interests, seeks to expand, consolidate and further
strengthen its relations with the CARs. Under President Putin, Russia
has sought to take strong positions in the region, with an emphasis
on strengthening cooperation in energy and military spheres; evidenced
by a number of bilateral and multilateral agreements recently concluded
by Russia.
After refusing to help U.S. President Islam Karimov for his human rights
abuses by the Russian government seized the opportunity to formalize
economic and military agreements with Uzbekistan, which will strengthen
its position not only in Uzbekistan but throughout Central Asia. Under
the agreement, the two countries will develop a large-scale security
system, which includes the Ministry of Defense, Foreign Affairs and
Interior, as well as the Security Council. Stated objectives of partnership
are the fight against terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction, drug trafficking and organized crime.
This was followed by a breakthrough in relations with Tajikistan. The
recent bilateral agreement concerns the establishment of Russian military
bases and border cooperation, under which Russia would help Tajikistan
in the development of its border structures and provide military assistance.
In addition, the Russian Security Council will establish a working group
to coordinate partnerships and assistance to Tajikistan for border protection.
At the signing ceremony in Dushanbe, Putin stressed that Russia's military
presence in Tajikistan, Russian investment and guarantee stability in
the region.
Another direction of Russian strategy was a formal accession of Russia
to Central Asian Cooperation Organization (CACO) October 18, 2004. CACO
was established in 1994 as an economic organization, is now transformed
into a regional structure, the agenda of which includes the problem
of politics, economy and combating terrorism. This step is regarded
by many as a tool to deter the American and Chinese move into the region.
(Zhumali, 2006)
As mentioned earlier, Russia has a broad economic and political ties
with Kazakhstan, has renewed the lease agreement Baikonur space center
for 50 years.1 It is negotiating the export of Kazakh gas
to Europe via Gazprom. Russia established a strong military and economic
ties with Kazakhstan, opened a military base in Kant.
In addition to economic and military bilateral relations, Russia is
strengthening its position through the Collective Security Treaty (CST)
transformed into the Organization of Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO), which makes Russia a key player in this structure and it is
seeking to involve CARs in military cooperation without Chinese participation,
particularly trying to decrease influence of China. Russia strengthened
ties with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), to contain Chinese
influence. As part of strengthening security cooperation, Russia promised
to hold in Tajikistan, the biggest military exercises of the CSTO in
first half 2005.
On the energy front, despite the efforts the U.S. and China moves to
control the routes of transportation, Russia has an advantage. Many
Central Asian pipelines go through Russian territory. Currently, Russia
accounted for almost 15% oil shipped in the U.S. According to Russian
Minister for Economic Development and Trade Herman Gref, Russia can
not compete with the Arab states in supplying oil to the U.S. market.
The approach of Russia to increase its influence in the CAR is concentrated
around the fundamental principles. Territorial dominance in the CIS
no longer plays a significant role in Russia's strategy. Moscow seeks
to use stability as a basic principle of foreign policy, in which Russian
interests are best served to use economic and military levers of influence.
Factor stability can convince the ethnic Russian to remain in the region,
rather than to immigrate to Russia. Russian Diaspora in Central Asia
is considered as an important asset in attempts to tie the regional
economy to the Russian.
Despite the relatively good relations with the U.S., Russia is suspicious
of long-term consequences of U.S. presence and influence throughout
the region. She did not want the region served the interests of the
West. The military and economic ties, including energy, are important
for national security interests of Russia. This is reflected in the
statement of Russian General Valery Manilov as saying that "if
in Washington try to establish a permanent military base in Uzbekistan
and Kyrgyzstan, in formulating a common political strategy of the Kremlin's
new situation will be considered in the context of an integrated system."
But this does not mean that Russia wants confrontation with the United
States. Interestingly, in recent years Russia has tightened its approach
to China. In October 2004 meeting of the SCO vetoed the proposal by
China to establish a free trade area, approved other members of the
organization. It seems that Russia is concerned about the growing military
and economic influence of Beijing, which could harm its interests, given
the growing economic power of China. (Vincen, 2004)
Protecting the interests of Russia in the field of economy and security
in its area of influence is one of the long-term goals of the Russian
Federation. In terms of bilateral and multilateral relations of its
recent efforts appear to reassert it, and use it as a tool for the formation
of a regional strategy. It is also important to prevent the usurpation
of strategic space of the Central Asian players such as China and the
U.S. In this context, the efforts of Russia should be seen as an attempt
to maintain a strategic position in the region, which it considers its
buffer zone. This is achieved by strengthening the bilateral relations
on the principle "stability" rather than "democracy."
Processes that led to the disintegration
of the Soviet Union without a doubt off a firestorm of enthusiasm in
the U.S., but at the same time, caught by surprise. Neither the White
House nor the State Department failed to adequately assess and react
to new trends. Former inertia prevailed; the US after the Soviet Union
collapse chose the fence.Exceptions to the rules were really that efforts
to dismantle weapons of mass destruction inherited from the USSR. In
Washington, the threat seriously concerned with the fourth power of
nuclear capabilities of Kazakhstan, in consequence of what was developed
for the Nunn-Lugar program, the U.S. Congress allocated respectable
amount of money.2
On the doctrinal level of U.S. policy in 1991-1994 can be summarized
as follows: we will not be fixed in the region, but will not allow others
to do so. The "doctrine Talbott" (Strobe Talbott, the U.S.
President's Advisor for Russia and CIS countries, Deputy Secretary of
State) were as follows: "Do not allow to return to Russia, to stop
escalation of Islamic radicalism and fundamentalism; complete nuclear
disarmament in Kazakhstan and to control the spread of weapons of mass
destruction, lay the foundations for the future control of Caspian oil
and stabilize the region by influencing the local government.»
3 Step by step the degree of direct involvement in affairs of
Central Asian states have been escalated, which was reinforced by the
military-political, economic, trade and investment components of the
interaction.Since filing the U.S. steadily growing list of overseas
companies in the region, particularly in the energy field, for the purpose
of fitting the local republics to Western standards and generally bespeaking
their sympathies run a range of assistance programs. Their total volume
of 1995 was: 523 Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic-306 Tajikistan-152,
Turkmenistan-140, Uzbekistan, 99 million dollars. Since 1997, soldiers
and officers of the U.S. Army took part in the exercises Central Asia
peacekeeping battalion in the units Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
In the field of geopolitics, the U.S. priority was to ensure the maximum
distance itself from Russia conduct two largest republics of the region,
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Subsequently, after 9/11 events there was
rejection of “Talbott doctrine” in the US foreign policy.
Its essence recall amounted to this: America is not going to put up a flag in the region, will not allow anyone else to do it. U.S. suit this situation, in which Central Asia would remain as if no man's land. Now in fact the U.S. got used to the image of "security sheriff". Before the terrorists attack in 9/11 Washington had not interested in Central Asia because of first of all its being distant and has been on the other side of the moon. After immediate collapse of the Soviet Union the US conceptualized the Central Asia as an unstable, undemocratic landlocked, poor, peripheral, fearful, defenseless part with the Islam religion which could be perceived as a real threat. However, after terrorist attack in 9/11, the Central Asia region became of a crucial importance; in particular the threat caused by the Afghanistan should required American military presence in Central Asian states, namely Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. (Chi-Lin Yang, 2008)
On Applications of the Pentagon,
in the prospects of the Kyrgyz Manas airport could be transformed into
a springboard for long-term military presence of the US in the region.
Similar calculations were connected with the Tajik "Kulyab",
which could be confirmed impressive American investment. Modernization
of each of the airbases cost almost 200-250 million dollars. With regard
to Uzbek Khanabad, which is leased for 25 years, in favor of the choice
is appropriate to quote Brzezinski “Uzbekistan is a major obstacle
to the resumption of Russian control over the region”.The most populous
country in Central Asia became a favorite of American foreign policy
in a region. (Brzezinski, 1999)
Thus, since 1991, the American strategy in the region can be classified:
the first half of 1990's nuclear disarmament, democratization, since
1995, the Caspian resources, and since 2001, the fight against international
terrorism and strategic consolidation in the region.
In the U.S., has so far been
in their position in relation to Central Asia intertwined as pragmatic
policy and the specific military-strategic interests, and certain ideological
motives. On the one hand, the U.S., apparently, have not abandoned the
concept of "color revolutions" and will continue the political
line of changing post-Soviet regimes, especially those who are not inclined
to compromise and to actively oppose the U.S. presence in the region.
On the other hand, it is clear that the U.S. is embarking on economic
reintegration of the region under its auspices. And this direction is
the new regional geopolitical project of the United States. Speech on
the proposed director of the Institute of Central Asia and Caucasus
F. Starr, the summer of 2005 a new concept in the region "Great
Central Asia" , which was later with the participation of U.S.
State Department was transformed into the concept of "Big South
Asia;.(Starr F., 2005)
The essence and the one and the other concept is to tie into a single
military-strategic and geopolitical whole of Central Asia and Afghanistan,
and then the Big Central Asia "with the so-called" Great Middle
East ", which in future should, in apparently controlled by the
West. Another project goal is the separation of this expanded region
and the output from the influence of other great powers - Russia and
China. The third objective - to lead Afghanistan out of the destabilizing
influence of neighbors like Pakistan and Iran, and bind this country
to a more stable region of Central Asia. In the case of the project
to the United States will be able to tear off Central Asia from the
Eurasian space, a natural part of it is, and thus isolating the region
from Russia and the CIS as a whole, as well as to construct a cordon
between the region and China. Merger of Central Asia into a single vessel
with the archaic Afghanistan can change the European vector of development
in the Central Asia and Kazakhstan that is to interrupt the process
of modernization, which is the very least goes intermittently for many
decades. In other words, the project "Big South Asia," aims
to create the "southern" the energy and transport corridor
linking Central Asia with South Asia, resulting in "locked"
in Central Asia will be able to get another outlet to world markets.
In this regard, this project is similar to "western" energy
and transport corridor passing through the states of the Caucasus and
linking Central Asia and the Caucasus to Turkey and Europe.
The main reason that prompted the State Department to propose a new
concept, it seems, are the geopolitical changes in Central Asia, which
led to the weakening of the U.S. in this region. Realizing that they
not only lose the geopolitical game in Russia and China, but their actions
in Afghanistan skeptical European allies, the U.S. has decided to offer
something that would help them solve a three-pronged challenge:
attract additional resources to address the problems of Afghanistan;
direct the flow of hydrocarbons of the Caspian Sea to the south, bypassing
Russia and China;
to obtain regional support India and Pakistan.
In addition, after the economic innovation, which involves the implementation
of the concept of "Great South Asia," he could put the task
of implementation in the region of U.S. democratic values and in case
of refusal from them, under the guise of protecting American economic
interests in the region have for the Central Asian political, economic
and military pressure.
The fact that the US are preoccupied with these problems, no doubt.
In any case, senior fellow at The Heritage Foundation Ariel Cohen writes
about this with complete frankness. Here are his recommendations to
the Council of National Security and U.S. Department of State Policy
in the Central Asian region :
(1) continue to encourage the governments of India, China and Pakistan
to create an alternative to Russia's transit monopoly, creating new
transit routes (pipelines, shipping lines and railways) to the west,
and in some cases, to the east and south;
(2) to encourage multinational corporations to diversify transit routes
of energy transit to reduce the risk that the common interest of the
U.S., EU and China;
(3) to develop closer ties with Central Asian States, drawing their
attention to the mutual profit from Western investment, military presence
and security cooperation, and above all: to assist in the implementation
of economic and legislative reforms to attract and protect foreign investors
and promoting economic growth;
(4) to develop closer relations in the military, security, combating
terrorism and in law enforcement, strengthening developing institutions
of democracy and civil society through programs administered by National
Endowment of Democracy and non-governmental organizations;
(5) a cautious and thoughtful approach to the states, whose leaders
are not inclined to cooperate with the United States, particularly Turkmenistan
and Uzbekistan, while above all: to emphasize the common interests in
security, particularly in combating Islamist terrorism, and promote
military cooperation there where there is American interests.
China-The initial period
of entry, and indeed, for the return of China to the Central Asia can
be dated in the interval 1992-1995. Opening of the "bamboo curtain"
from the East was accompanied by a stream of shuttle traders, bringing
consumer goods from China. And already in their footsteps came senior
officials and representatives of big business. Then the official Beijing
emphasized two levels: political, designed to quietus and convince Central
Asian states of good intentions in China's foreign policy, and to dispel
uncertainties of aggressiveness or plans to take the seat of a "guardian"
of young republics. This would be a great help in achieving the objectives
long-term plan. Second-economic, aimed on the one hand at winning a
promising market for their products, on the other, to the extent possible,
to redirect the local economy on the Chinese direction. It is necessary
to pay tribute to the realism and sagacity of the Chinese strategy.
The calculations were quick to justify themselves after a few years.
It was possible to consolidate a climate of trust and create the conditions
for a peaceful settlement of border disputes with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan
and Tajikistan, to give impetus to trade, economic and cultural cooperation.
By 1995, there has been differentiated approach to Beijing's regional
neighbors. ( Zhumali,2006).First places took Astana and Bishkek. Less
intensely moving case with other partners, this had its own reasons.
Tashkent isolated in itself, being guided in its policy towards the
West, namely towards US, which was may be provoked by the binding and
lack of common borders with China. Tajikistan was experiencing an acute
crisis in domestic policy after the Tajik war, which was seasoned by
Afghan proximity factor. In these circumstances, the priorities of Dushanbe
were directed exclusively on the Kremlin. In addition to the vital economic
power, such a choice is motivated by Russia's 201 divisions, which covered
the Tajik-Afghan border.4 Neutral Turkmenistan on its foreign
policy rested on Russia, however all the republics of Central Asia,
united by a desire to establish good neighborly relations with China.
Blessed with a charge given to political level, it positively influenced
the entire spectrum of cooperation, including the decision to problematic
situations. Focus was primarily on the border issue and the issue of
Transboundary Rivers. Meanwhile, since 1998 at the forefront of cooperation
between China and Central Asia, former have been put forward the energy
aspect, when it was confirmed detection of huge reserves on the Caspian
shelf. (Swanstrom
2010)
The energy resources of Central Asia are of particular significance
for China. Of course, in the foreseeable future, Beijing has no plans
to alter the main routes of oil supply in the country. Nevertheless,
the leadership of China has aimed to diversify its supplies, transportation
modes and options for the purchase of hydrocarbons. This is due to the
fact that the major energy suppliers in China are state of the politically
unstable region, as well as that from 70 to 80% of oil supplies to China
passes through the Malacca strait, controlled by the U.S. Navy. Transportation
from Central Asian countries is relatively safe, short and carried the
onshore pipelines. Moreover, in the longer term, China has the opportunity
to expand its Central Asian land route to northern Iran and beyond to
the Middle East. 5
In this regard, China is actively developing market hydrocarbon Central
Asian region. In 2007, the Chinese National Petroleum Company (CNPC)
has become the second largest controlled oil production in Kazakhstan.
In general, the amount of oil controlled by Chinese companies in Kazakhstan
amount to 20 million tones, of which the actual percentage of Chinese
is not bound to supply to other areas, is 13 million tons. The growth
of oil transportation through the Atasu-Alashankou in 2007 was 122%
(4,8 million tons). The main source of raw material supply in the pipeline
is Kumkol, which developed the Kazakh-Chinese joint venture PetroKazakhstan
Kumkol Resources, supplies from other fields involving the Chinese company
is currently impossible because of poor transport infrastructure. (Petroyse,
2009)
In this area a key partner of China in Central Asia, is a Kazakhstan,
but today China is actively searching for forms of cooperation with
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan for gas as well as with Kyrgyzstan in the
field of hydropower. So now it has worked out several major projects
as: Pipeline from Turkmenistan to China. After the death of Turkmenbashi
Niyazov in the success of this project have some concerns, especially
given the vigorous action of the Russian "Gazprom" in Turkmenistan.
However, in late July 2007 Berdymukhammedov visited Beijing on his first
visit and, together with Hu Jintao signed between the State Agency for
Hydrocarbon Resources of Turkmenistan and CNPC production sharing agreement
on gas field Bagtyyarlyk (total estimated resources are estimated at
1.3 trillion. cub. m) on the right bank of Amu Darya, which will be
a source of raw materials for the construction of the pipeline. In addition,
CNPC signed an agreement with Turkmengaz 30-year contract to supply
30 billion cubic meters of gas annually, starting in 2009 when it issued
the Beijing Ashgabat soft loan, which will go to the purchase of Chinese
drilling rigs.6
Also, China and Turkmenistan have agreed to conduct joint work on the
exploration and development for the smooth supply of raw materials of
this pipeline.
In August 2007, during his state visit to Kazakhstan President Hu Jintao
signed an agreement to build a gas pipeline from Kazakhstan - China.
It will be implemented in two phases. The first phase is planned to
extend the pipeline from Turkmenistan to China, he will pass through
Shymkent to Khorgos, and will have a capacity of 40 billion cubic meters
per year. The second phase is planned to construct a gas pipeline Beyneu-Bozoi-Kyzylorda-
Currently, China's apparent
desire is to become a leader in the CAR. Beijing virtually launched
its essentially active-aggressive policies designed to further penetration
in the region. The proposed model of China's economic development, looks
attractive because it is enabled China even amid the global financial
crisis has considerably strengthened its economy. This way of development,
in our view, can attract attention of the leadership of Central Asia.
After all, it allows developing its national economy at an accelerated
pace, which will undoubtedly affect the growth of welfare. On the other
hand, he remains in the hands of local elites of authoritarian rule
and not compelling them to immediate implementation of the reforms that
they are satisfied. In this connection one can not rule out soon spread
in CAR is not only pro-Chinese sentiments, but also the emergence of
pro-Chinese lobby.
In the medium term implementation of the new Chinese strategy will only
increase. Beijing intends, apparently, to use for this, not only bilateral
relations but also the framework and the possibility of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO). (Siroezhkin, 2001)
One can also assume that in the future Beijing would seek to oust from
the region other power centers, and gradually identified strategic objectives.
Currently, there is already a profound transformation of China's foreign
policy strategy, which likely will detail and step by step, to be implemented.
Most likely, this strategy will become a multi-level nature.
For successful implementation of its policy on Central Asia towards
the Chinese leadership at one time acted as one of the initiators of
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, whose work focuses primarily
on pre-emption "uncertainty factor" in Central Asia and, of
course, to strengthen its western borders. Given that "uncertainty"
covers different areas of activity, the SCO is transformed into "multi"
interstate merger, although security issues today have a special place
in its activities. Moreover, China being one oа the profounder of this
organization, now is trying to transform it from political one to the
economic with future creation of free market zone. But this idea was
not supported by the Asian states, which sights such kind of intentions
as a real threat to be absorbed by the giant Chinese increasing economics.
Central Asian states, particularly Kazakhstan in the framework of the
SCO will have more risks and threats rather than benefits, first of
all because of disproportion within organization-huge giants in the
face of China and Russia and less developed CAR. It is a risk for CARs
to be a sort of supplier of natural resources for China and a challenge
to be dependant economically from it.7 Nevertheless, China’s
leadership has aimed to diversify its supplies and options for the purchase
of hydrocarbons. Kazakhstan, which is neighboring with China has a risk
to become a raw material appendage for the last.
Another important component of Beijing's new strategy in the CAR is
called Chinese "investment" ideological character. It is difficult
to say how they will take root in Central Asia, predominantly Muslim
nations, but this factor should objectively consider and evaluate.
Beijing will strive to be more profitable, possibly dominant position
in Central Asia, gradually displacing the region of other players, in
particular Russia, which also defines this region as domain of its national
interests and the US, which also trying to imbed it interests, spreading
democracy. In general, China's policy toward Central Asia is inherently
long-term strategic and multi-pronged. The role of Beijing in the region
will naturally increase.
But interest in the CAR, in addition to China, as has been said, often
"traditional country influence" and power centers. In modern
conditions, when the fore the issue of energy security, coupled with
the gradual development of non-renewable hydrocarbon resources and the
lack of sufficient alternative energy sources, the positions of each
player in the region will depend on the establishment of control over
fuel and energy resources and their means of transportation . China’s
foreign policy towards CARs can be summarized as a achievement of strong
economic position, ensuring a reliable energy supplies for Chinese economics,
security in border areas (especially Xingjian region), the maintenance
of stability in the region, to ensure friendly relations withcountries
in the region to China, preventing contact with the CAR under the control
of states hostile to China, and the establishment of military alliances
directed against it.
Central Asia is quite a long
time was presented no interest to the EU, which was taken by
"integration" of Eastern Europe in its composition. What can
explain such a keen interest now?
It is known that EU dependence on energy resources, a threefold increase
in their prices and gas conflict between Russia and Ukraine have led
to his attention that the EU has concentrated on finding new ways to
provide alternative energy sources. Lack of energy has led to this market
from the sphere of private business interests moved into the sphere
of public interest and public policy of the EU.
That is why Brussels was chosen as the nomination of a series of policy
initiatives in relation to Central Asia. These initiatives combine the
motives of economic and political nature. But, as recent events show(Kazakhstan's
presidency in 2010 in the OSCE, the EU strategy, the proposed reform
of the EU energy system, support for the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline),
the economic component outweighs the political.
The EU adopted in June 2007 by the European Council a new strategy towards
Central Asia for the period from 2007 to 2013 despite the fact that
the strategy is short-term, yet it is a political document. The political
sphere - human rights, reforming the political system, are not in first
place in the adopted strategy, while energy policy and energy security
are the priority. Thus, the economic interests in the region are expressed
clearly; the main emphasis is on the extraction and transportation of
energy resources.
Such an approach is explained by the fact that Europeans, above all,
"frightening" instability and unpredictability of the political
processes in the region. In this regard, the EU takes softer stance
on the political situation in Central Asian countries. Berlin, as the
developer of the Strategy, the stringent requirements and critical statements
do not contribute to the democratization process and further reform
the political system in Central Asia.
Rather, they believe it is more "push" them to work closely
with China, the Islamic world and Russia. Furthermore, a change the
course of political development towards authoritarianism and totalitarianism
that eventually will expand the zone of instability. Therefore, according
to the position, above all, the German Government, it is better to support
those small, but the hopefuls to reform, pulses, while avoiding harsh
statements. 8
Approval for the OSCE chairmanship in 2010, Kazakhstan is also further
proof that the value aspect of EU foreign policy at present is not dominant.
As we know, energy remains one of the biggest challenges for Europe,
so their own requirements relating to energy security, proved decisive
for the EU in shaping foreign policy.
In this regard, the OSCE chairmanship can be considered as shown by
the loyalty of Kazakhstan to energy projects, which lobbied or will
lobby the West in the future. However, one should not exclude that an
agreement might be reached in exchange for the waiver Kazakhstan's support
of Russia's position in questions of reforming the OSCE. The imbalance
in the ratio of political and economic components of foreign policy
in Brussels is obvious. The EU is well aware that energy export routes
may be more effective levers of influence in the region, rather than
political. EU will have to compete at a fairly intense energy markets
with large countries like USA, Russia, and India, and China. Therefore,
the tactics of the EU in Central Asia in the energy sector would include:
1. Active participation in the process of production of the Caspian
Sea, 2. the use of existing pipelines 3. Participation in the construction
of new alternative oil and gas pipelines. In particular, the European
Union in early December approved the construction of the Trans-Caspian
pipeline bypassing Russia and Iran, an alternative to the Caspian Sea,
initiated by Russia.
According to representatives of the EU, "trans-Caspian pipeline
is economically rational. It is designed to transport gas from Central
Asia under the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and from there to Georgia and
Turkey, and then in the European Union. «The pipeline is scheduled
for completion by 2010 ( Matveeva A. 2006)
This pipeline, if implemented, coupled with initiatives to reform the
energy system in Europe is able to resolve one of the important strategic
task - to reduce dependence on Russia, in particular, the goal is not
only to build a pipeline bypassing Russia and Iran but also to restrict
access Gazprom to European markets. It is possible that these measures
are also aimed at preventing the recurrence of the situation with Russia
- to limit the possibility of monopolization of the gas market by one
entity.
Specifically, the proposed package of legislative initiatives aimed
at changing the role and influence of the monopoly gas companies. This
is expected to be achieved by prohibiting the companies that produce
resources, hold any shares in the ownership of gas transmission companies
in Europe. Manufacturing companies can remain co-owners of transmission
infrastructure, but transfer the management of independent operators.
Thus, proposing to divide production, transportation and marketing,
the EU is trying to reduce the influence of monopolies, increase competition
and lower prices for consumers, as well as close any investment in gas
transportation infrastructure in the EU. And, most likely, the EU is
trying to narrow the possibilities of expanding the presence of Gazprom
into European markets, decreasing, thus, his political influence.9
Based on the fact that the energy issue is an important competitive
field, any statement is a major market player in it big changes. Therefore,
the EU statement on the feasibility of building the Trans-Caspian gas
pipeline, which is part of the Eurasian energy corridor, the U.S. initiated
and proposed by Brussels reforms in this area are aimed at making changes
to the evolving situation.
Indeed, from registration to the project must address a number of problems,
not including financial - the unresolved status of the Caspian Sea pipeline
route passes through many states, it is a disputed oil fields, population
density in the pipelines.
Considerable importance has shown by the activity of other major players
- China in Central Asia, as well as cooperation in Central Asia with
China within the SCO. However, the EU considers the U.S. mistakes in
building relations with the republics of Central Asia. In particular,
we offer flexible - both meetings at the regional level, countries in
the EU-Central Asia, and bilateral negotiations format. In addition,
the EU aims to "equal" to cooperate with all the republics,
given the specificity of each republic. Such an approach to building
relations with the republics - trade-offs - the interests and needs
of partners in solving their own problems, is more efficient than the
choice of a republic, as "chief." 10
Thus, one can note that on the EU agenda again had the problem of energy
security. In this connection, the EU is trying to solve, problems encountered,
both by finding alternative ways of ensuring energy supplies and protecting
their market, producing a common energy policy. In this context, Central
Asia serves the object of attention in Europe, which can serve as a
solution strategically important tasks.