Inflation could top 10 per cent this year by Tom Washington at 21/01/2011 16:13

Inflation could top 10 per cent this year

by Tom Washington at 21/01/2011 16:13 

 

The prospects look bleak on the financial markets, as inflation looks set to push on up and threatens to break into double figures. 

At the end of last year inflation busted official predictions and hit 8.8 per cent, when president Medvedev asked the government to do something about it.  

And increased food costs, coupled with annual utility hikes, have seen January's inflation rates continue to rise. 

 Sudden spurt 

The sudden spurt that took figures up to 8.8 per cent came at the end of last year, the Federal State Statistics Service said. This late in the day jump means that over the coming year the government and Central Bank will find it very hard to stay within the official 6-7 per cent target, Interfax reported.   

The bank now sees an ominous creep up to 10 per cent as a very real possibility.  

Alexei Ulyukayev thinks the dark tidings will come to pass in the first quarter, “I feel that in the first quarter we will see an acceleration of inflation. Perhaps this will change in the second quarter, I hope so,” he told a conference at Deutsche Bank in London.  

He added that by mid-year inflation could be shooting up to double digits, although he said those queasy-making heights would be “temporary.” 

  

Rising prices at root 

Elina Ribakova and Natalia Novkova, analysts at Citigroups Global Markets, told investors in a note that the usual January water, gas and electricity rises and higher ticket prices for public transport are the main reasons for consumer prices rising. 

They do not expect the bank to deploy a key anti-inflation weapon by hiking interest rates, citing Gennady Melikyan, Central Bank chairman and board member, who said there is no reason to raise interest rates in January.  

“Accelerating world food price rises pose additional risks of inflation surprises, given further monetary tightening through higher rates on CBR deposit facilities and a stronger rouble,” they said. 

Medvedev: Russia’s economy needs to hurry up and grow

by Alyona Topolyanskaya at 18/06/2010 13:48 
 

The Russian government should make the effort to speed up the growth of its economy, said President Dmitry Medvedev on Friday, saying that the Russian economy has expanded 4 per cent in the first five months of 2010. 

"We started the year with growth. So far it has not been  as inspiring as we want it, but the figures are decent," Medvedev told the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. 

He also promised that the government would consider easing the tax burden for companies but only in certain years and on condition of a healthy economic situation in Russia and abroad. 

"We will return to the issue of easing the tax burden for businesses in the next few years if the global and Russian economies recover in a favorable way," Medvedev said. 

He did say that the capital gains tax for direct investment would be cancelled next year. 

Meanwhile the budget needs funds and Medvedev said that he had significantly decreased the number of companies which cannot be privatized. 

"I am cutting the number of strategic companies by five times...I have signed a decree to this effect today," he said. 

He also suggested the government set up a joint fund with state and private money to develop strategic projects. 

"I’ve asked the government to work on the idea of creating a special investment fund where state money will be augmented with private capital  - say, we expect one ruble of state investment to attract three rubles of private investment. I think the idea should be implemented within a year," he said. 

While much of the speech was somewhat dry, there were a few moments of light relief, most notably in an exchange with a moderator over reserve currencies. 

Asked how the Chinese leader felt about the yuan’s role as a reserve currency, Medvedev quipped that he couldn’t speak for Beijing even to “such a beautiful” moderator. 

And when asked to advise investors about what he would be buying, the president hit back: “Who? Me, or Russia?” 
 

Putin wants more private investment in Siberia

by Evgeniya Chaykovskaya at 27/10/2010 16:18 

  

Russia’s wealthiest are being urged to put their money right back where those petrodollars came from and sink their roubles in Siberia. 

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is leading the call to transform the region from a semi-deserted wilderness of oil, gas and coal producers into a vibrant and attractive growth region. 

And he chided reluctant investors for not keeping their side of a bargain with the government. 

  

Government promises fulfilled - Putin 

The state builds the infrastructure, and the business must organise manufacturing, announced the Russian PM, before adding that the state followed through with its commitments, but the businesses did not. 

Putin used Boguchanskaya power station as an example and said that the government built the roads and infrastructure in the region, but the station is still not finished.  

The regional development ministry pointed out two more projects where the investors are stalling with promised construction: Elegest coal mine and Boguchansky aluminium plant, Vedomosti reported. 

Putin’s words should be seen as a call for investors, rather than a threat, thinks Dmitry Peskov, the Prime Minister’s press-secretary.  

The ministry also says it will not implement sanctions against the companies as they took the economic crisis into consideration. 

  

More than resources in Siberia 

However, Siberia can provide a lot more opportunities for investors, rather than simple mining and oil drilling. 

In July a development strategy was adopted to make the region a more attractive place to live and promote alternative industries and revenue streams. 

Putin said there were plans to further develop the infrastructure in Siberia, and to turn Altai, Buryatiya and Irkutsk region into tourism centres, Komsomolskaya Pravda reported. 

But several regions say investment is already flourishing, with Tyumen Region’s department of investment policies lauding the progress made on their patch. 

Deputy head Vladislav Chernov told The Moscow News that there’s more than oil in the resource-rich region, highlighting investment into agriculture, food production, considering that the majority of Tyumen region population lives in villages. 

 “We are always attracting investment in areas like commercial property, creating shopping centres, attracting retailers, building hotels,” he said. 

Tatyana Ivleva, vice-president on development and finances in Kemerovo chamber of commerce also welcomes Vladimir Putin’s calls for more investment in Siberia, and agrees there is much more in Kuzbass than natural resources. 

“Our region is attractive to investors not only because of coal, we also have well-developed metallurgy, chemical industry and car manufacturing,” Ivleva told The Moscow News. 

  

Regional investment picking up speed 

Investment in Siberian development will exceed 1.8 trillion roubles, said regional development minister Viktor Basargin after the meeting. The state will invest 200 million, as will regional authorities, and 1.5 trillion roubles should come from private investment. 

Regional investment is the key if Siberia is to develop, says Ivleva. 

“Every developing region needs investment, and any investor will be interested in Siberia, as the scope here is huge,” Ivleva added. 

In Tyumen region investment is already flourishing, added Chernov. 

“We work with potential investors, who invest in agro-industrial complex, food industry, car manufacturing, higher education and research centres,” he said. 

Chernov praised Tyumen region’s location and said that it made the region attractive to investors. “Our advantage is our unique geographical location, West Siberia, not far from border with Kazakhstan (450 kilometres), in the heart of Russia, right on the Tran Siberian railway that connects us to the far east and Kazakhstan,” he enthused. 

Kudrin urges higher pension age

by Ed Bentley at 01/07/2010 19:58 

Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin and President Dmitry Medvedev seem to be locked on a collision course over retirement ages. 
 

The pair differed once again on Tuesday, with Kudrin telling delegates at an investment forum that Russians would have to work longer for their pensions before the president pointedly ignored the issue in his budget speech. 
 

Faced with an ageing population and a likely shortfall in revenue to feed the national pension pot, Kudrin is eager to push the official retirement age up by as much as five years, from 60 for men and 55 for women. 
 

In a country where male life expectancy hovers around 59 years, the prospect of delaying retirement age is unlikely to be supported by voters. 
 

“If the government increases the pension age, it is a sign for people that the system is tightening – so it is not good for their election approach,” said Olga Kuzina, a socio-economist at the Higher School of Economics. 

  
 

Hours after Kudrin had spoken at the Renaissance Capital annual conference, Medvedev delivered his budget speech – making no mention of a longer working life for Russians. 
 

He acknowledged that there were “serious challenges” facing the system, but stopped well short of endorsing – or even referring to – Kudrin’s call to raise retirement ages. 
 

Kudrin had acknowledged at the forum that his plan would come to fruition “maybe not today, and maybe not tomorrow but sometime”, quoting dialogue from Humphrey Bogart in Casablanca. Kuzina said the decision was likely to be delayed until after the 2012 presidential election. 
 

The difference between the positions was perhaps summed up by Kudrin, who explained that his job was simply to ensure a balanced budget. 
 

The president, mindful of the 2012 election, used his budget speech to court groups most affected by the crisis as the government remains aware of potential social tensions. 
 

“What’s especially important is that we were able to maintain social stability, mitigate the social impacts of the [economic] crisis, and ensure – even in this difficult economic setting – a real increase in the level of support provided to our most vulnerable citizens, including pensioners,” Medvedev said. 
 

Pensions are expected to grow between 33 per cent and 42 per cent this year from the January average of 7,100 roubles a month. 
 

“Pensioners are very good at turning out in elections and choosing the proper candidates,” said Kuzina. 
 

Russia has one of the lowest retirement ages in Europe – and attempts to increase it have divided political parties. 

Nikolai Levichev, leader of the nationalist Just Russia party’s faction in the State Duma, told Gzt.ru that the president had deliberately ducked the issue, adding that he did not understand Medvedev’s position. 

But there was support from United Russia Duma deputies, mindful of upcoming elections and the dangers of inflicting unpopular measures on the public. 

United Russia deputy chairman Valery Ryazan agreed with Medvedev’s reluctance to raise the age limit. 

“We need to improve working conditions and increase employers’ contributions to the pension fund,” he told Gzt.ru. 
 

Medvedev, however, recently introduced new legislation which would force state employees to step down at 65.